Presidential Politics

The Presidential election has become substantially less interesting over the last few weeks, hasn't it? Now, I can hear you saying, "Hmmm?" But hear me out. After super Tuesday, it was pretty clear that McCain was, without any question, going to be the Republican nominee. Alright, that leave the onus on being entertaining to the Democrats, a role they'll usually happily fill. But then Obama won 11 contests in a row, and Hillary Clinton must win in Ohio and Texas if she's going to have any hope of becoming the nominee. And while that is still a possibility, it seems to become less and less likely as time goes on, and we're left with a presumed nominee (Obama) who just has to get over one last hurdle on is path to the convention.

It's interesting that these are (apparently) our two candidates, because when their campaigns were in the planning process early on I'm sure there was some discussion as to who they would like to face in the general election. McCain would rather face Clinton, there can't be any doubt about that. His best chance is to appeal to the independents that she might alienate with her very presence, and she'd be put immediately on the defensive. On the other hand, Obama would much rather face Huckabee or Romney, because that would allow him to grab the independent vote. Trends are showing that independent voters, as a whole, are becoming fed up with the current leadership of the country- They want change, and that's what Obama is promising to deliver.

So, I'm willing to bet that both campaigns are really wishing they were facing someone else. The general election is going to be a rush towards the independent voters, one that McCain or Obama wouldn't have to do if the other weren't in the race. Think about it. If the Republican nominee were Huckabee, for instance, Obama could focus on shoring up his base, safe in the knowledge that the average independent voter is probably going to break for him. And McCain could spend some much-needed time pandering to the Republican base if he didn't have to worry about the independent vote; if Clinton were the nominee he wouldn't have to worry so much.

Barring any unforeseen developments, these two men are our nominees for President. Both have proven appeal to independent voters, and both are heavily reliant on independent voters to sustain their campaigns. It's especially a problem for McCain, who has some proven problems with the Republican base. If he has to fight with Obama for the independents, he's going to be in a tight spot. Does he try to appeal to the Republican base, who he absolutely has to have in order to win the election, or does he appeal more to the independents, who he also has to have?

Now, Obama does not have quite the same problem. The sheer number of people participating in Democratic primaries across the country indicate that Democrats are fired up and absolutely ready to elect one of their own President. What he does have to do is ensure that, assuming he becomes the nominee, Clinton's voters make a painless transition over to him. He can't afford to alienate those voters, they are (typically speaking) the hard-core of the party (this is, of course, excepting the Netroots). But he is most definately in an enviable situation.

But what happens if Clinton pulls off a coup and manages to become the Democratic nominee herself? Then the situation becomes more interesting. McCain doesn't have to worry quite so much about shoring up independents, and Republicans become automatically fired-up. Can their 'fire' match the Democrats this cycle? That would be quite an interesting fight...